Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Combined Spread Analysis 01/31/2024

 The market gapped lower at the open, dropping to 488.37 a few minutes after the opening bell. A very small bounce to 489.08 was followed by a steady decline that brought SPY to a low of 486.45 just after 10:30. 


At this point the market e=seemed to transition from profit-taking mode following some high profile earnings reports, to FED-watch mode. SPY settled into a trading range between 486 and 488 while awaiting the much anticipated FED decision. The initial reaction was somewhat muted, as SPY dipped just below that 486-488 trading range before recovering to move above that range up to 489.00. The rally was short-lived, and after hitting 489.00 SPY dropped pretty quickly below 484, and after a small move higher continued lower to close near the low of the day at 482.88.



We can see from the Delta Price chart that SPY spent almost the entire day below our +/-2 point range.

A look at the 15 Minute chart identifies our exit points:


The initial drop in the first two hours of trading shows the RSI(5) in oversold territory, with a small positive divergence at 11:45. The MACD also appeared to have put in a short term bottom. Our Bear Put Spread yesterday consisted of a Long Jan 31 '24 490 Put, and Short the Jan 31 '24 489 Put. 



During that time frame our spread was trading slightly above 0.80. Our combined Spread cost outlined in yesterday's post was 0.79, so this would give us a small profit.

With our Put Spread closed out for a small overall profit we would now be looking to exit our Call Spread. At this point any exit above 0.00 would increase our overall profit. Looking at the 15 Minute chart we can see the RSI(5) moving up off the early morning lows, and by 1:15 it had move above 50. With the sideways move pointing to this being a corrective move this served as a decent exit point. Our Long Bull Spread, consisting of a Long Jan 31 '24 492 Call, and a Short Jan 31 '24 493 Call, we can see that this was not terribly profitable, but we could have sold it for a nominal price.


We can see that the spread was trading at about 0.05 to 0.10. If we take the 0.05 and add it to our 0.80 from the Put Spread we have a combined 0.85 compared to our 0.79 entry price. Not the most profitable trade, but a profit none the less. 

Our Set Up for Thursday:

Long Bull Call Spread
Buy Open Feb 1 '24 484 Call     1.44   1.45
Sell Open Feb 1 '24 485 Call      1.02   1.03
Cost = 0.43

Long Bear Put Spread
Buy Open  Feb 1 '24 482 Put      1.08   1.09
Sell Open Feb 1 '24 481 Put        0.77   0.78
Cost = 0.32
Total Cost = 0.75


Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Option Spread Combination Analysis 01/30/2024

SPY rallied in the closing minutes on Monday to close at 491.27. Most of those gains were erased within the first minute of trading on Tuesday, as SPY fell to 490.52 in that opening minute. A small rally ensued until just after 10:00am, and SPY found itself just above yesterday's close, reaching a high of 491.36.


SPY spent the next hour in a narrow trading range between 490.50 and 491.00 before breaking out and rallying to 491.48 just before noon. That rally fizzled and SPY fell once again, this time to nearly 490 at 490.11. Once again SPY moved higher through the afternoon towards 491.50, hitting a high of 491.62  just before 3:30. SPY drifted lower in the last half hour, dropping to 490.72 before closing at 490.89.

Our research has shown that the optimal spread will be priced within 2 points of the close. If the close is a whole dollar amount the choices are easy, with the long leg of the spreads priced at 1 point above and 1 point below the close, and the short legs priced at 2 points above and below the close. If the the close is on a half dollar amount. we set the long legs at the nearest whole dollar strike, and the short leg one point further out. For our purposes we us quarter points as the cut-offs. Anything > 0.25 and < 0.75 is considered a half dollar. Prices 0.25 and below are rounded down, and prices above 0.75 are rounded up.

With SPY closing at 491.27 on Monday our Bull Call Spread consists of a Long Jan 30 '24 492 Call and a Short Jan 30 '24 493 Call. These were priced at approximately 0.95 and 0.58 respectively, for a cost of 0.37.

Our Bear Put Spread consists of a Long Jan 30 '24 491 Put and a Short Jan 30 '24 490 Put, priced at approximately 1.08 and 0.73 respectively, for a total cost of 0.35.

Out total price for the two spreads, therefore is 0.37 + 0.35 = 0.72.

We can see from the chart above that SPY traded between basically unchanged, and down a point. Normally we would look for a change of +/- 2.0 points for our combination spread to be profitable. In many cases treating this as two separate trades can be more profitable than looking at it as one trade.

We mainly use the 15 Minute chart to give us exit points.


From this we can see the morning dip, and the rally into the 12:00 hour. SPY was coming off overbought territory, with MACD topping out. The rally off the opening gap lower gave us our first sell signal. Notice that the morning dip then brought the 5 Period RSI near the 50 level, with the rally taking the RSI(5) above 70 and into overbought territory. It also formed a negative divergence from Monday's close, indicating a short term high. MACD was also now trending down. This gave us a second sell opportunity.

We can match this up to the Call Spread chart:


We see the call spread rose above 0.30 during the rebound off the opening gap lower, and moved above 0.30 once again during the rally into the noon hour. The Call Spread portion of our trade could have been closed out above 0.30 in either case.

Looking back to the 15 Minute chart, we see that the decline after the noon hour to 490.13 took the RSI(5) below 30, and into oversold territory. MACD was still trending down, but had also become somewhat oversold. This indicated a good spot to close out our Put Spread.




Matching that up with our put spread chart shows that we the spread was trading above 0.50 during that time frame. 

So even though SPY traded within a range of barely more than 1 point, we could have closed out the bull call spread at 0.30 or above, and closed out the bear put spread at 0.50 or above, for a total of 0.80 or above, compared to our cost of 0.72, resulting in a profitable trade.

Today SPY closed at 490.89, so our spread combination looks like this:

Bull Call Spread
Buy Open Call Jan 31 '24 492     1.04   1.07
Sell Open Call Jan 31 '24 493      0.74   0.75

Bear Put Spread
Buy Open Put Jan 31 '24 490      1.47   1.51
Sell Open Put Jan 31 '24 489      1.05   1.09

Total Bid/Ask                              0.67   0.79






Option Spread Combination Analysis 02/14/2024

 Our Option Spread Combination going into the day was: Long Bull Call Spread Buy Open Feb 14 '24 495 Call @ $1.13 Sell Open Feb 14 '...